The American Institute for the Study of War warns that: “Russia appears to be accelerating the informational and psychological condition-setting phase — “Phase 0” of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future) ISW continues to assess that “Russia is pursuing a multipronged informational effort to deter the West from defending against hostile Russian actions and to set conditions for a potential future conflict with NATO.”
In its report on the war in Ukraine, the ISW highlighted a statement from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service on 6 October 2025, which begins as follows: “The press office of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation (SVR) reports that, according to information received by the SVR, London is furious that Britain’s long-standing efforts to bring about a ‘strategic defeat’ of Russia and turn it into a pariah state are ending in failure.”
Therefore, the British concocted a “vile provocation”. According to the SVR website, “The SVR claimed on October 6 that the United Kingdom (UK) is planning for a group of pro-Ukrainian Russians fighting for Ukraine to conduct an attack on a Ukrainian Navy ship or a foreign civilian vessel in a European port.” After “revealing” the alleged terrorists, the English planned to announce that they were acting “on the orders of Moscow”.
According to a statement posted on the ISW website: “The SVR’s October 6 claim follows similar SVR false flag claims targeting European states, such as Poland, Moldova, and Serbia, and the SVR has been issuing such statements more frequently in recent weeks that constitute a new concerted pattern of activity.”
It is worth recalling that the Russian intelligence services had previously claimed to have “detected” a plot by Polish and Ukrainian special services to instigate open conflict between Russia and NATO through provocations.
According to those allegations, Kyiv and Warsaw supposedly planned to send a sabotage and reconnaissance group — allegedly composed of soldiers from Russian and Belarusian special forces — into Polish territory. In reality, the participants were to be Russians and Belarusians acting as provocateurs.
Russian intelligence further assessed that “Candidates have already been selected to participate in the provocation. These are fighters who fought on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the ‘Free Russia Legion’* and the Belarusian ‘K. Kalinowski Regiment’.” The Russians further added, “It is not excluded that this operation will be combined with a staged attack on critical infrastructure facilities in Poland in order to increase social resonance.”
They concluded, “It is assumed that after the group is ‘exposed and neutralised’ by the Polish services, its members will appear before the media, making alleged statements incriminating Russia and Belarus for attempting to destabilise the situation in Poland.”
“The purpose of the provocation is obvious: to show the international community that Moscow is fuelling the escalation spiral. Kyiv hopes to force European countries to respond to Russia in the harshest possible terms, preferably militarily. In the face of inevitable defeat, the Zelensky regime is ready to go to any lengths, even at the cost of unleashing a ‘major war’, hiding behind the Europeans,” Russian intelligence warned.
But what if such a group never materialises? Indeed, that is the point. A different narrative would then emerge — that Russian intelligence successfully thwarted the outbreak of World War III, similar to the claims now being made about the United Kingdom.
Киев готовит новую резонансную провокацию
According to the ISW report: “Russia’s overt and covert attacks and false flag claims serve multiple purposes for Moscow both internationally and at home. Russia aims to create fear throughout the European population and fragment NATO’s resolve.” „Russia aims to use fear in Europe to gain concessions in its war against Ukraine and a possible future NATO-Russia war. Russia is trying to push Europeans to decrease their support of Ukraine out of fear that continued support will increase Russia’s overt or covert attacks.”
Disinformation and drone operations are part of Russia’s “reflexive control” strategy, a psychological warfare concept designed to manipulate an adversary’s decision making in favour of the Kremlin. The ISW warns that “Russia appears to be conducting concerted preparations as part of the physical and psychological condition-setting phase for war contingencies. Russia has been engaged in a variety of overt and covert attacks against NATO states, such as sabotage missions, electronic warfare (EW) interference, GPS jamming, and arson, in recent years. (…) ISW is not assessing at this time whether the Kremlin has decided to engage in such a higher level of war or on what timeline the Kremlin may expect to do so.” the ISW adds.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 6, 2025
By ih.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is an American non-profit organisation, a non-partisan think tank based in Washington, D.C., established in 2007.
The ISW specialises in the analysis of armed conflicts and international security. The Institute’s work is regularly cited by the U.S. Department of State, the Pentagon, media outlets, and military analysts worldwide.
The ISW’s stated mission is:
“to advance an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education to improve the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve U.S. strategic objectives.”
The Institute is funded by donations and grants.
Its team includes military experts and former U.S. Army officers, including Gen. David H. Petraeus, Gen. Jack Keane (a member of the ISW’s board), along with numerous analysts.
During the Russo-Ukrainian War, the ISW has become one of the most reliable sources of military analysis, publishing daily front-line reports (“Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment”), which are cited by news organisations such as Reuters, the BBC, The Guardian, and Politico, among others.
Official website: https://understandingwar.org
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