Russian media outlets have recently been fond of quoting opinions from local experts who warn of a NATO attack on Russia. This time, one such analyst claims that a conflict between the Alliance and Russia is almost inevitable, partly blaming Poland.
Alexander Sobyanin, head the Association for Border Cooperation, specialises in international security issues, the military, the defence industry, and military-technical cooperation from a Russian perspective.
In an interview with the Russian portal NEWS.ru, he outlined where he believes a confrontation between Russia and NATO is most likely to erupt. In his opinion, “with the current course” of NATO and several member states, including Finland, Poland, and the Baltic states, a conflict between the Alliance and Russia is almost inevitable. He argued that the Baltic region could become a key theatres of war (TVD).
“Scenarios for blockading the Kaliningrad region and Russian shipping are already being developed. The main task of the Finnish and Swedish forces will be to attack the Karelian Isthmus and sever the land connection to Murmansk, which will effectively cripple the strategic submarine fleet base and block St. Petersburg,” he explained.
Sobyanin added that combat operations in this area will be difficult because Finland and Sweden are quite formidable opponents with strong defence industries and well-trained, motivated armed forces.
A similar view was expressed in early September by Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, who wrote in this column:
“After joining NATO under the pretext of ‘defensive’ measures, Helsinki is pursuing a confrontational course and appears to be preparing a bridgehead for an attack on Russia. The Alliance is fully involved in these matters and is currently intensively developing all five operational environments of Suomi — land, sea, air, space and cyberspace.”
Medvedev went further, warning: “While building a new ‘Mannerheim Line’ in a fit of revanchism (in other words, preparing military infrastructure for another aggression against Russia), the Finnish establishment should remember that a confrontation with us could lead to the collapse of Finnish statehood forever. No one will indulge them as in 1944.”
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