Here is the relevant quote:

“Lukashenko believes that Belarusian nationalists could create an enclave in Lithuania and Poland—a second Belarus. He has previously hinted at the historical ties of certain territories in these countries to the Belarusian nation. Some Belarusian nationalists who have emigrated are making territorial claims on Poland and Lithuania, hoping to establish an alternative Belarus there.”

To support this narrative, Alexander Lukashenko was quoted as saying: “There’s another problem in Lithuania: our nationalists fled there and claimed that Vilnius is part of Belarus. Vilnius. Really a Belarusian region. I said: alright, hold on, soon in the Białystok region and neighbouring parts of Poland where our people are, they’ll also say they are Belarusian… And the Lithuanians no longer know what to do with them. Their minds are already sideways. They’re ready to occupy and annex the Lithuanian territory or create an enclave there and call it Belarus 2 or something else. And there, their own puppet government can be created.”

However, this narrative shifts when viewed through the lens of Belarusian state media. On the same day, the regime-controlled BelTA television channel aired Lukashenko’s meeting with workers from the Minsk Automobile Plant. There he argued: “neighbouring countries no longer know how to handle certain nationalists who fled Belarus. Some of these fugitives are madmen funded by the West, specifically the Americans, primarily from Poland and Lithuania. Ukrainians are more cautious. In Ukraine, our fighters are present. Ukrainians are great—they don’t allow our people to approach the border if they intend to occupy territory. They say, ‘Guys, we don’t need trouble with Belarus.’ But in Poland and Lithuania, the situation is different. There’s another problem in Lithuania: our nationalists fled there and claimed that Vilnius is part of Belarus. Vilnius. Really a Belarusian region. And I say: alright, hold on, soon in the Białystok region and neighbouring parts of Poland where our people are, they’ll also say they are Belarusian… And the Lithuanians no longer know what to do with them. Their minds are already sideways. They’re ready to occupy and annex the Lithuanian territory or create an enclave there and call it Belarus 2 or something else. And there, heir own puppet government can be created.”

It is evident from this quote that the Russians deliberately omitted the Ukrainian context. They clearly didn’t appreciate the image of Lukashenko as an independent leader not beholden to Moscow. In their eyes, he cannot be allowed to conduct independent policy towards Ukraine, especially when he states: “They say, ‘Guys, we don’t need trouble with Belarus.’” This part was likely cut for a reason.

Elections

When we strip away the rhetoric from Lukashenko and the Russian censorship of his statements, the intent behind his speech becomes clear. It is a primitive form of political agitation ahead of the so-called presidential elections. This also serves the purpose of instilling fear in us regarding Belarusian emigrants. According to Lukashenko, the refugees from Belarus, who have found shelter in Poland from his dictatorship following the rigged elections, could incite social unrest.

They might provoke some separatist movements and establish their own state in the Białystok region. He portrays Belarusian democrats as potential agitators, a threat both to Belarus and to the countries that have welcomed them.

The implication is clear: Belarusian emigrants are dangerous and it is best to follow his example and get rid of them. This should be done by replicating the Belarusian regime’s methods: imprisoning, intimidating, and psychologically breaking them. Lukashenko falsely characterises the opposition to his regime as anarchists, implying that eliminating them was justified. He seeks to convince host countries to adopt the same view. In a cunning strategy, he seeks to instil fear in Belarusians toward Poles, and vice versa.

Facts

What is the reality? First and foremost, this is part of Lukashenko’s ongoing effort to mislead the Belarusian public. His claims do not reflect the truth. Belarusian opposition members living in Poland are not trying to change borders or act as Lukashenko’s Trojan horses. The Minsk dictator is simply lying. What truly bothers him is that after the rigged 2020 presidential elections and the brutal suppression of protests, determined activists sought refuge in Poland to pursue freedom and continue their work.

Five years later, 1,256 people are still imprisoned in Belarus. Having ruled since 1994, Lukashenko shows no willingness to democratise his country. The presidential elections on January 26, 2025, were again rigged. This time, there were no mass protests; Belarus has been silenced and is gradually integrating with Russia. Like Putin in Russia, Lukashenko “won” over 80% of the vote, with no genuine competitors—he handpicked all four presidential candidates, all of whom were loyal to him. These elections were a oilictical charade.

Belarusians Are Not Seeking to Break Away from Poland

Contrary to Lukashenko’s claims, Belarusians are not pursuing separatist ambitions. The Belarusian community in Poland is one of the country’s national and ethnic minorities, with a historical presence dating back to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The current status of this community has been influenced by both historical context and contemporary migration patterns. During the Commonwealth era, the territories inhabited by Belarusians were part of the joint Polish-Lithuanian state. Following Poland’s independence in 1918, a significant number of Belarusians resided in the eastern regions of the Second Republic, forming a notable minority with diverse political and cultural identities. After World War II, Poland’s borders shifted westward, and the eastern areas traditionally occupied by Belarusians became part of the USSR. Nevertheless, Belarusian communities continued to exist in Poland, particularly in Podlasie.

Today, the majority of Belarusians reside in Podlaskie Voivodeship, especially around Bielsk Podlaski, Hajnówka, and Siemiatycze. According to the 2021 census, approximately 40,000 people identified as Belarusian. Their community in Poland actively preserves its national identity and language. Numerous cultural organisations, such as the Belarusian Social and Cultural Society, operate within this community. The Belarusian language is taught in select schools, and Orthodox churches serve as vital components of their cultural identity. Belarusian media, including the weekly “Niwa” and radio/TV broadcasts on Polish Radio Białystok, contribute to the community’s visibility. While the Belarusian community receives support from governmental institutions and NGOs, challenges persist in maintaining their language and identity.

Life of Belarusians in Poland After 2020

Contrary to Lukashenko’s claims, after the 2020 presidential elections in Belarus—widely  regarded  as  fraudulent—and  the  brutal  repression  of protesters, many Belarusians were forced to flee their country. Poland emerged as a primary destination, providing refuge to both political activists and ordinary citizens facing persecution. Several factors facilitated this migration: Poland’s geographic proximity to Belarus made escape more feasible, and the Polish government openly condemned Lukashenko’s regime while supporting the democratic movement in Belarus. Initiatives such as “Poland. Business. Harbour” were launched by the Polish government to assist Belarusians—particularly IT specialists and entrepreneurs—in settling and working in Poland. Many Polish organisations, including the Białoruski Dom Foundation, the Ciechanów Solidarity Fund, or the Belarusian National Assembly in Exile, offer legal, linguistic, material, and psychological support to Belarusian refugees. Highly skilled professionals, particularly in IT, media, and the arts, have made new lives for themselves in Poland.

Visa and residency processes have been simplified. Poland has become a hub for the Belarusian democratic movement in exile. Among others, the opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya now resides in Warsaw. Also, independent Belarusian media outlets, such as Belsat TV and various online platforms, operate from Poland, continuing to inform the public back in Belarus. Numerous cultural events, exhibitions, concerts, and initiatives are held to promote Belarusian culture and raise awareness among Poles regarding the situation in Belarus.

Challenges Faced by Belarusians in Poland

Despite these developments, numerous challenges remain. Some migrants, particularly older generations, struggle with learning the Polish language. However, this is the least of their problems. The risk of marginalisation is real. Although Poland openly supports Belarusians, some of them face difficulties integrating into the job market or securing housing.

Constant uncertainty weighs heavily on many, who live in a state of limbo, waiting for political change in their homeland. These are the real issues Belarusians face in Poland—not separatist ambitions. The new wave of migrants—young people, activists, journalists, and those seeking better living conditions—are not politically motivated to create a “Belarus 2.” Their concerns lie in integration, navigating bureaucracy, and having their qualifications recognized. Above all, they remain committed to supporting democratic change in Belarus.

By Professor Marek Melnyk